I just love reading the incindiary reporting in the papers, mostly written by mainlanders with - buried way in the interior - the nugget says but in Hawaii this is improving.  Comparing this year to last year or the year before and/or talking about median prices is ludicrous.  They are basically comparing apples to chicken - friut to meat?!!.  Now I'm talking about Oahu's real estate market - the neighbor islands are a different story.

Everyone agrees that the go-go market that over increased market values swung back to normal somewhere around late 2006 early 2007.  What most people don't remember is what normal is.  Home owners still have 4 years of appreciation on their side.  Most people in trouble here are those who bought at the height of the market and either expected to be able to flip the property in under three years at a profit or borrowed more than they could truly afford with tricky mortgage products.

Median price.  If I sold three homes, one for $750, one for $550 and one for $450, the median price would be $550.  But if I sold 10 for $750 and one for $550 and two for $450 then the median price would be $750.  Which basically doesn't mean anything when it comes to deciding what you should pay for the home you're looking at. 

And the skewing continues.  As most economists say - when the number of sales start to rise, that's when the market is turning.  I'm seeing the numbers rise - but it's hard to tell when short sales are involved because it can take months to get them in escrow and months to close so you don't "see" the numbers immediately.  I'm seeing investors getting back in the market, albeit the lenders are making things incredibly difficult.

 There is always demand in paradise.  We have continuing influx of military, investment, and vacation buyers looking to build thier wealth and there are lenders and realtors ready to make their dreams come true.  I feel strongly that prices are as low as they are going to go, rates are as low as they will be and will rise, the up to $8000 buyers credit is pau December 1st - so if you're not in escrow by October 10th you will miss out on the buy low side of the buy low sell high equation! 

Check us out at http://hawaiirealestateonline.com and see what we can do for you, or just give me a call.  I'm off to look at some beach side property in Kailua for a client - such great values! We'll talk later.